Tracking NASCAR’s most desperate teams at Daytona

“It’s going to be a mess, right? I mean, we all know it.”

That was the warning from Spire Motorsports driver Michael McDowell before the NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday night, where just two spots remain in the Field of 16.

Those two spots will effectively be decided by who wins, with 20 drivers needing nothing less than reaching Victory Lane at one of the most chaotic tracks on the schedule. It will absolutely be a mess.

Already locked into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Denny Hamlin, Shane Van Gisbergen, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry and Austin Dillon.

But each of these drivers have teammates that are not already set to chase a championship and a win is the only thing that gets them there.

Placing the pieces where they need to be

Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

Two-time Cup Series champion Kyle Busch, faces this scenario for the second year in a row, but this time with a teammate in Austin Dillon who just won his way into the gauntlet with a victory at Richmond. Thus, Dillon has just one goal on Saturday: doing whatever it takes to get Busch into The Dance with him.

“We’ve talked as a group and those guys are team players and want to be there and want to help out and if you can orchestrate it perfectly …” Busch said, his voice kind of trailing off. “If you can get it perfect, I feel like Austin (Dillon) and I did that not this year in the (Daytona) 500 but the year before.”

That was the year that Busch was the leader at the 500th mile but lost the race in an overtime finish.

Dillon, who had a very enjoyable week after his upset victory from 28th in the championship standings, feels motivated to do whatever it takes to get Busch in. And Dillon has previously been the beneficiary of that philosophy as then teammate Tyler Reddick pushed him to victory lane in this race back in 2022.

Those meetings have already taken place too.

“Yeah, I think it’s mostly (been about) what we can do to support him, help him put himself in good positions,” Dillon said. “It takes a lot in these races but if we can give him the support to where it plays out good, good for him in any kind of way, we will.”

Dillon also referenced that same Daytona 500 in 2023.

“He was very close to winning the 500 with me behind him in the first year out of the gate,” Dillon said. “So we’ll do what we can and that’s going to be huge for our team if we can accomplish that.”

Bowman on the hot seat

Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: Jam Media / Getty Images

There are so many moving parts to this final playoff spot. Reddick and Alex Bowman hold the two final provisional playoff spots on points but a new winner from outside the cutline would end the championship hopes for the one lowest in points between them by the end of the night.

Reddick holds a 29-point lead over Bowman should a new winner emerge like last year when Harrison Burton won his way in from 34th in the standings. If there is a new winner, Bowman would need to outpoint Reddick by 29 points.

Each stage pays up to 10 points through the top-10 so that battle could be largely dictated by halfway. 

“There’s just a lot of racing, that’s going to play out tomorrow that will kind of determine how that looks,” Reddick said. “I would say that by the third stage we will have a good idea of where everyone is and who is racing for what.”

Who do you push?

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Photo by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

There is another interesting subplot set to play out regarding the Toyota teams.

Denny Hamlin drives for Joe Gibbs Racing but co-owns 23XI Racing with Michael Jordan and Curtis Polk. Gibbs has three of its four drivers locked into the field with Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe largely tasked with doing what it takes to get Ty Gibbs into the Round of 16.

Hamlin says he is staying out of the 23XI strategy and is instead focused on his duties to Joe Gibbs Racing.

“I trust them,” Hamlin said of locked in Bubba Wallace and Reddick’s strategic process. “They go through and they prepare and do all the numbers to figure out where they think they need to be and what’s the right strategy to stay up front or not. I’ll let them handle that.”

It’s also worth noting that Hamlin has previously said that if given the choice between pushing a teammate into the playoffs or pushing one of his 23XI drivers into the playoffs, that he would choose the latter.

Of course, Reddick doesn’t have to win and there is a scenario that Hamlin could still push Gibbs into the field and still lock the car he owns into the field in the process.

As for Bowman, he has the most advantageous teammate scenario because he and Reddick both advance if there is a repeat winner like all three other Hendrick Motorsports drivers William Byron, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson.

“If any of the four of us win, all good,” Elliott said. “It’s really more simple than it has been in many years with having multiple guys in multiple spots. I think that’s an advantage for us as a company.”

Again, interesting subplots.

Three teammates facing the same dilemma 

Brad Keselowski, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford, Chris Buescher, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford, Ryan Preece, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Photo by: Chris Graythen – Getty Images

All three RFK Racing drivers — Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece — all face the same odds despite having the third best organizational average finish in the sport. But the best case scenario is that only one of the three will make the Field of 16.

They will each be faced with the scenario of trying to help each other out up until the point where it is time to make a very selfish decision on the final lap. 

“Obviously, this is not ideal,” said Keselowski, the 2012 Cup Series champion. “But this is what the situation is and we try to control what we can control. We can’t control what happened in the past.”

When it was suggested during a press conference that Buescher might have to ‘dump’ Preece, both junior RFK drivers had a hearty laugh at the idea of literally spinning his teammate.

“If I dump him stage one, I don’t have have to worry about it later is what you’re getting at, right,” Buescher asked. “But seriously, I still say that there’s no doubt in my mind that (if) you come off of turn 4 and if you’re helping each other all day, then all bets are off at that point – or maybe earlier, I don’t know.

“But a normal teammate will tell you that we will race each other hard but respectfully. Ultimately, you hope that we have three of our Mustangs with the ability to have a shot to win the race at the end and we’ll just duke it out all the way to the line.”

Keselowski said he’s taken more of whatever happens, happens approach to Saturday night.

“You try to plan for a race like this that has so much chaos, and it’s just absurd to try to do that,” said Keselowski, the 2012 Cup Series champion. “Obviously, you just try to survive and win in the end.”

Busch, should he win his way into the playoffs for the first time since 2023 and snap an 82-race winless streak, says it will be a championship caliber party in the infield after the race.

“I might be worse than Brad Keselowski after a championship.”