By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, August 21, 2025
Photo credit: Jon Buckle/ROLEX
The game’s biggest Grand Slam stage looms large for contenders eager to create a major milestone in Flushing Meadows.
The US Open draw was revealed today.
Here are our top takeaways from the men’s draw ahead of the first-ever Sunday singles start.
Draw Winners
(1) Jannik Sinner (ITA)
The defending champion is a firm favorite in New York. Not only did Sinner dethrone Carlos Alcaraz to make history as the first Italian to win Wimbledon, but on paper he has a more favorable draw than his top rival.
Yes, the world No. 1 was ill and out of sorts retiring from the Cincinnati final against Alcaraz on Monday, but Sinner has been practicing on site in New York and seems to be over that virus.
A tricky potential second-round could pit Sinner against hard-hitting Aussie Alexei Popyrin, who won the 2024 Canadian Open then stunned Novak Djokovic at the US Open. Still, Sinner should be able to get to Popyrin’s backhand. Sinner could face confounding Alexander Bublik, who beat him on grass in Halle in June or 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic in round three, 14th-seeded American Tommy Paul, coming off a foot injury, in the fourth round and either Davis Cup teammate Lorenzo Musetti or fifth-seeded Jack Draper, who missed Canada and Cincinnati recovering from a shoulder injury in the quarterfinals. The fast hard court suits Sinner’s assertive baseline play and cooler conditions forecast for week one should help him if illness lingers.
4 Taylor Fritz (USA)
There’s a lot on the line for the 2024 US Open finalist Fritz.
The good news for Fritz fans, he should be able to play his way into the tournament to gain early momentum. Fritz opens against American wild card Emilio Nava with a possible third-round clash vs. 30th-seeded compatriot Brandon Nakashima followed by Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik in the fourth round if seeds hold true to form. Fritz owns a horrific 0-10 lifetime record against possible quarterfinal foe Novak Djokovic, including a 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 thrashing in the 2023 US Open quarterfinals—one of Fritz’s worst Flushing Meadows defeats.
Still, if you’re Fritz you’d rather be facing Djokovic, who hasn’t played a singles match since losing to Sinner in the Wimbledon semifinals last month, at this stage given the Grand Slam king’s inactivity and the fact Djokovic battled a thigh injury at SW19—and has a tougher path to the quarterfinals. If Fritz is ever going to defeat Djokovic this could be the time.
(6) Ben Shelton (USA)
Two years removed from his US Open semifinal appearance where Novak Djokovic famously hung up on him, Shelton is fully capable of dialing up another deep run.
Empowered by his gritty trip to the Toronto title, Shelton arrives in New York playing the most dynamic tennis of his career.
Some of you knocked Shelton’s Canadian Open triumph pointing out “yeah, but he didn’t beat Sinner, Alcaraz or Djokovic to do it.” My response is: Who cares? You can only play the guy across the net—not the rankings. Shelton showed up, they didn’t—and now he’s a Masters 1000 champion. Shelton is an imposing server with a lethal lefty forehand and he’s comfortable closing net at crunch time. The question is: Can he break serve enough and if he can’t break enough, then can he do what he did in Toronto: Win three third-set tiebreakers. If he can figure out a way to squeeze out breaks, hit his backhand with authority and remain tiebreak tough, Shelton can go deep again.
(8) Alex de Minaur (AUS)
The Demon opens vs. fellow Aussie Christopher O’Connell, and is in second quarter of the draw along with No. 3-seeded Alexander Zverev, who battled illness in Cincinnati and went out of Wimbledon in the first round. Zverev was in position to win the 2020 US Open, but crumbled mentally losing a two-set lead and the match to Dominic Thiem, who made history as the first man since legendary Pancho Gonzalez to rally from two sets down and win a US Open/US National final.
Still, Zverev opened the year reaching the Australian Open final, has made the US Open quarterfinals or better for four straight appearances and on paper is the man to emerge from this quarter. However, don’t sleep on De Minaur, who reached the 2024 quarterfinals, he’s a hard-core competitor, will bring the fire and desire and can put together another run this month.
Draw Losers
(13) Daniil Medvedev
The former No. 1 opens vs. Benjamin Bonzi, who has beaten Meddy in both of their prior Grand Slam meetings, he’s looked cranky and uncertain in practice and has struggled in this North American hard-court season. Even if Medvedev beats Bonzi, he’s looking at a possible third-round match vs. Washington, DC finalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina followed by potential fourth-round meeting against 2022 US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev is a shrewd problem-solver, but he’s starting at several sizeable obstacles just to reach the second week.
(7) Novak Djokovic (SRB)
The good news for the Grand Slam king: He resides in the bottom half of the draw opposite No. 1 Jannik Sinner. The bad news: Djokovic hasn’t played a singles match since bowing to Sinner in the Wimbledon semifinals, has been pained by a leg injury and he’s in a quarter filled with potential American opponents, including Learner Tien, Sebastian Korda, Alex Michelsen, Frances Tiafoe with a possible fourth-round meeting with Holger Rune looming.
Djokovic has won four of six meetings vs. Rune, but three of their last nine sets have gone to tiebreakers, the Dane defeated Djokovic in the 2022 Paris final and Djokovic has said Rune reminds him of himself. You never discount Djokovic at any age on any surface, but should he navigate all those minefields, he could face Alcaraz, who he defeated at the Australian Open, in the semifinals. The Spaniard’s desire for redemption will be sky high if that match comes off and Alcaraz is 16 years younger coming off the Cincinnati championship.
(26) Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)
The Flushing Meadows first week has frequently been the final stop for Tsitsipas, who has failed to survive the US Open second round in five of seven appearances. That trend could continue as Tsitsipas faces Frenchman Alexandre Muller in round one in what could be another quick exit. Tsitsipas has reunited with father, Apostolos Tsitsipas, as coach, however his backhand return remains an issue. He has an expansive backswing and often gets jammed up trying to drive it rather than chip it. Ex-coach Mark Philippoussis tried helping the Greek improve that stroke, but it remains even more vulnerable on the fast Flushing Meadows court.
First-Rounders to Watch
(2) Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) v. Reilly Opelka (USA)
Head-to-head: First Meeting
Towering server Opelka can disarm nearly anyone—if he’s on—while human highlight reel Alcaraz loves the big challenge. Opelka is the ATP ace leader (655) this season, while Alcaraz leads the Tour in return games won (32.73%) so something has to give in what should be a highly-hyped night match on Ashe Stadium. If you saw Opelka play mixed doubles with Venus Williams earlier this week, you know his arrhythmic style—he can crush a return winner down the line then miss three in a row three feet long—can be maddening for opponents. Alcaraz clearly has more weapons, but Opelka is one scary character—especially under the lights.
(13) Daniil Medvedev v. Benjamin Bonzi (FRA)
Head-to-head: Bonzi leads 2-0
It’s been a horror-show run for the 2021 US Open champion Medvedev and this US Open draw could reduce the former No. 1 to cameo-role status on the court where he’s starred in the past. Bonzi beat Medvedev in his Wimbledon opener earlier this summer, can close at net and exploit the Russian’s deep court positioning. Bonzi beat Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas to reach the Cincinnati round of 16. The day the draw came out, a pissed off Medvedev was hurling his racquet around the practice court. You’d probably be ticked off too if you’d gone 3-4 since winning Halle and watched your flat drives repeatedly stray long amid the windy Flushing Meadows conditions.
(7) Novak Djokovic (SRB) v. Learner Tien (USA)
Head-to-head: First Meeting
Four-time champion Djokovic continues his quest for a record-extending 25th Slam championship. The Grand Slam king could be tested against the tricky Tien, who often brings his best against top players. The left-handed Tien showed his skills playing through qualifying stunning Medvedev en route to the Australian Open round of 16. Tien owns wins over Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton and Andrey Rublev this year. Djokovic hits bigger, has more shots and his two-handed backhand is a premier shot which should help him combat the Tien slider serve. Still, Djokovic is coming off a six-week layoff and he’s failed to surpass the fourth round in three of his last five Flushing Meadows appearances, including his upset loss to Alexei Popyrin in a 2024 US Open night match. Yes, Djokovic should advance, but given the circumstances you just never know.
(10) Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) v. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (FRA)
Head-to-head: Musetti leads 2-0
A fast Flushing Meadows court is probably the last place you’d want to face the massive-serving Mpetshi Perricade. Nick Kyrgios calls the towering Frenchman’s missile serve the best he’s ever seen. Musetti has seen it too and beaten the Frenchman in both prior meetings, including a four-set win en route to the 2024 Wimbledon semifinals. I was at that match on No. 2 court and was impressed by how well Musetti used the chip return to not only block back the serve but give the 6’8” Mpetshi Perricard little pace to work with on the next ball. Funnily enough, Musetti showed more all-court skills in his Cincinnati doubles run with Lorenzo Sonego and his US Open mixed match with Caty McNally. If Muse Man can transfer that transition game to singles, he can be dangerous here too though of these men have the misfortune of being in top-seeded Sinner’s quarterfinal.
Questions on Draw
How likely are we to see Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz raise the US Open title trophy on September 7th?
It’s very likely. The top two are operating at a higher level than the entire field, they’ve combined to claim eight of the last nine majors with only Novak Djokovic’s 2023 US Open title disrupting that dominance. Clearly, there’s a very strong shot Sinner or Alcaraz rule New York again.
Remember, Alcaraz has repeatedly said his goal is to finish 2025 as year-end No. 1. He leads the ATP Race and trails Sinner by about 1,900 points in the ATP Rankings. Alcaraz, who was mentally fried when he fell to Botic van de Zandschulp in the 2024 US Open second round, can close a lot of ground on Sinner in New York.
If not Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, who wins this US Open?
Even with his age, injuries and tough draw, you still have to put Novak Djokovic as third favorite. Then, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev are all capable of deep runs. Indian Wells champion Jack Draper is talented, lefty and loves hard courts, but he missed the North American summer hard-court season and seemed to lose a little sting on serve playing US Open Mixed Doubles this week. That’s a sign that perhaps the Briton is not completely healthy.
Who are the Dark Horses?
Though it’s unlikely we’ll see a qualifier do what Terence Atmane did with his inspired run to the Cincinnati semifinals, 11th-seeded Holger Rune, while up and down, is capable though he may well have to beat Djokovic to reach the second week.
World No. 15 Andrey Rublev has reached quarterfinals or better in three of his last four hard-court events and nearly knocked Alcaraz out in Cincinnati. If the ATP had an annual award for “Player Who’s His Own Worst Enemy” Rublev would win it every year—the guy sometimes cannot get out of his own way and has beaten himself bloody on court in the past. Still, Rublev is a beautiful ball striker, his inside-in forehand—the forehand down the line from the backhand corner—is brilliant and he’s reached US Open quarterfinals in three of his last five appearances.
No. 8-seeded Alex de Minaur has an appealing draw, he plays his best on hard courts, is one of the best competitors in the field and figures to be fired up since the US Open blew off his request for a mixed doubles wild card with fiancee Katie Boulter.
Eighteen-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca is still learning how to construct points and apply his wondrous gifts to match play. Though it may be a bit premature to pick him here, if you’ve seen Fonseca in person you know how explosive and entertaining he can be and he possesses a volatile point-ending forehand. It’s a matter of time before Fonseca puts together a second week run in a Slam though he managed only two wins since his Wimbledon third-round appearance.
A player who often impresses me when I see him in person is Francisco Cerundolo. He owns one of the best forehands you’ll see, he’s quick around the court, but he’s only played two-and-a-half matches in this North American summer hard-court season after retiring to Zverev in Toronto. Additionally, Cerundolo can get tight on second serve, but if he’s healthy and fit he can be dangerous. If he’s not, he can fall early.
