The 20 drivers who could win their way into the playoffs at Daytona

In the NASCAR Cup regular season finale at Daytona, the math is simple for every driver currently below the cut-line, and that’s because they are all done counting points. There is no scenario where any of them can point their way into the playoffs, leaving these drivers with one option — win.

The only outliers are Alex Bowman (who holds the 16th and final spot) and Tyler Reddick 29 points ahead of him. If there are no new winners from below them, then they will be the only drivers to make the playoffs on points alone. However, if there is a new winner, then the holder of the final spot when the checkered flag flies will be bumped.

40 drivers have entered the Cup race at Daytona, and 20 of them could ruin the season of Bowman, or Reddick. Now, let’s take a closer look at each of these desperate drivers and their shot at actually pulling off a victory in the eleventh hour of the regular season:

^{Playoff points position / Driver / Best Daytona Cup result}

Chris Buescher, RFK Racing Ford

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Buescher won the summer race at Daytona just two years ago, leading a 1-2 finish for RFK Racing. The Fords are always strong at Daytona, and RFK will be intensely motivated with all three of their drivers in a must-win situation. But Buescher has to be the most determined of the trio, as he was in on points just one week ago. A new winner at Richmond pushed him into this uncomfortable position, and it’s the exact scenario that kept him out of the playoffs one year ago. Buescher is a legitimate contender, and could absolutely win this race, but it will be fascinating to see how the RFK teammates work together as they all fight for the same prize.

18. Ryan Preece — Best finish of 4th (2021)

Ryan Preece, RFK Racing Ford

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Unfortunately, Preece has made the highlight reel for all the wrong reasons at Daytona in recent years. In 2023, he barrel-rolled down the backstretch, and just a few months ago, he went fully upside down after the car did a bizarre wheelie. But don’t think he is intimidated, as he has leaned into the fact that he’s ‘the guy who flips,’ even designing his Daytona helmet to look like something you’d see a Top Gun pilot wear. ‘Air Preece’ will try to avoid a third airborne misadventure this weekend, and finally earn his first career win at the Cup level.

19. Kyle Busch — 2008 Daytona winner

Race winner Kyle Busch celebrates

Photo by: Fastlines

Busch is the most experienced and successful Cup driver on this list, and yet, his only Cup win at the iconic superspeedway came 17 years ago. However, that doesn’t mean he is a non-factor. Just one year ago, Busch finished a close second in this race. He will also have plenty of support from within his own team, as Richard Childress Racing is bringing a third car for Austin Hill, who has dominated at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. And then there’s Busch’s teammate Austin Dillon, a former Daytona 500 champion who won his way into the playoffs last weekend at Richmond. Busch’s year has been a tough one, but momentum is with RCR entering Daytona.

20. Ty Gibbs — Best finish of 5th (2024)

Last-lap crash, Daytona 500 (Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing; Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team; Cody Ware, Rick Ware Racing; Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing; Austin Cindric, Team Penske; Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports)

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

The only Joe Gibbs Racing driver not yet locked into the playoffs is looking for a little bit of good fortune this weekend. Despite winning on debut in the Xfinity Series on the Daytona Road Course, he has zero Cup wins in over 100 starts. He does a fairly good job of finishing these Daytona races, which is half the battle at these superspeedways. His only DNF came while battling for the lead a couple of years ago, but the pressure will be immense as the No. 54 team tries to join its teammates in the postseason fight.

21. AJ Allmendinger — Best finish of 3rd (2009, 2017, 2018)

A.J. Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Allmendinger is a well-known ace on road courses, but he is often wrongfully overlooked at superspeedways. He has a trio of third-place finishes at Daytona in the Cup Series, and six top tens in his last eight races here. That’s a remarkable feat, and Kaulig Racing certainly knows how to win at Daytona (at least in the Xfinity Series). Allmendinger isn’t a fan of superspeedways, but he will likely be near the front when the checkered flag draws near.

Race winner Brad Keselowski, Team Penske Ford

Photo by: NASCAR Media

Keselowski is a fantastic drafter, and he has been within arm’s reach of far more than one victory at Daytona. He is extremely capable of winning at Daytona, but the aggressive veteran struggles to finish many of these races. Shockingly, he has DNFed in eleven of the last sixteen Daytona races, and he led plenty of laps during that period. But even if he survives the carnage, he may face an impossible choice as the driver of the No. 6, but also a team owner at RFK Racing, with two teammates facing the same situation. 

23. Carson Hocevar — Best finish of 4th (2024)

Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Hocevar has made a lot of enemies this year, which may come back to bite him this weekend, as you need friends in order to contend for the win at Daytona. However, we will 100% hear from this driver on Saturday night. His aggression level is off the charts, and his enemies are numerous. Hocevar has also been agonizingly close to a first career win multiple times this year, and if he’s got a chance at Daytona, I wouldn’t want to be the driver in his way.

Michael McDowell, Front Row Motorsports Ford

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

McDowell is one of seven drivers on this list who have won at Daytona before in a Cup car, prevailing in the 2021 Daytona 500. He also started from pole position in the summer race last year, leading 26 laps before going airborne in a violent crash from the lead. While he is with a different team this year, there’s no reason to think McDowell won’t find his way to the front once again.

25. Erik Jones — 2018 Daytona winner

Erik Jones, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Photo by: Brian Lawdermilk / Getty Images

Jones will be driving an iconic throwback scheme for Richard ‘The King’ Petty this weekend, driving the famous No. 43. He is a winner at Daytona, but that came during his JGR days. He’s a solid superspeedway racer, but this race has been hit or miss for him. 

John Hunter Nemechek, Legacy Motor Club Toyota

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Nemechek and teammate Jones were part of a great result by Legacy Motor Club in the 2025 Daytona 500. All three drivers finished inside 12th or higher, and Nemechek earned his career-best finish. He is also extremely good at getting to the ends of these races, never finishing worse than 15th and always on the lead lap.

27. Zane Smith — Best finish of 13th (2023, 2024, 2024)

Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports Ford

Photo by: Mike Ehrmann – Getty Images

Well, Smith is certainly consistent, finishing 13th in three of his four starts at Daytona. But he’ll need more than that if he wants to win this race. He doesn’t seem like a driver who will be a contender without some help from the usual Daytona chaos.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., JTG Daugherty Racing

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Stenhouse is perhaps the most likely driver on this list to go and win this weekend. Of the 20 drivers facing a must-win, he is the only one to have multiple Cup wins at Daytona. In fact, all four of his Cup wins have come at superspeedways. Recent history hasn’t been kind to him, with three DNFs due to crashes in his last four starts, but that No. 47 will find its way to the front. If he can avoid the wrecks, then he is always a threat for the win.

29. Daniel Suarez — Best finish of 7th (2023)

Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

Suarez is racing for a lot this weekend, as his time with Trackhouse nears its end and he remains unsigned for the 2026 season. He also has two teammates who have already won their way into the playoffs, and could be helpful allies on Saturday night. Unfortunately, his record at Daytona isn’t ideal, scoring just one top ten in 16 starts. 

30. Justin Haley — 2019 Daytona winner

Justin Haley, Spire Motorsports

Photo by: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Haley’s 2019 victory at Daytona was an absolute shocker, as rain showers ended the race early. He’s also won at Daytona in the Xfinity Series, and he is feeling the pressure as there are whispers that he could be out of the No. 7 car at the end of the year. The best way to quiet those rumors is to capture the checkered flag.

31. Todd Gilliland — Best finish of 23rd (2022, 2024)

Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports Ford

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Gilliland is the only driver on this list without a single top 20 finish at Daytona, so that’s not a great sign. He has failed to finish five of his seven Cup races at Daytona, and while he will have a fast car via Front Row Motorsports, he seems to never be able to avoid trouble.

32. Ty Dillon — Best finish of 4th (2019)

Ty Dillon, Kaulig Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The driver who nearly won the $1 million in-season challenge should never be underestimated again, and his brother did win a race just a few days ago. But in truth, his Daytona starts aren’t very impressive, and he remains winless in 270 Cup Series starts. Maybe Ty has another upset in him, but history says otherwise.

33. Noah Gragson — Best finish of 5th (2022)

Noah Gragson, Front Row Motorsports Ford, Joey Logano, Team Penske Ford

Photo by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

Gragson was one of the drivers who avoided the infamous rain wreck in 2022, where a sudden shower took out most of the field. Other than that and a ninth-place finish in the 2024 Daytona 500, he hasn’t made much noise at Daytona … in Cup. But in the Xfinity Series, he earned his first career NXS win at Daytona back in 2020.

34. Cole Custer — Best finish of 11th (2021)

Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Many have forgotten, but Custer was shockingly close to winning the Daytona 500 earlier this year. He was directly behind the race leaders, and pulled out of line on the final lap in an effort to steal the win for himself. It didn’t work, and when he tried to get back into line, a massive crash broke out. But it doesn’t change the fact that he was one good move away from potentially winning that race, even after Gene Haas’ NASCAR team downsized into a one-car effort.

35. Riley Herbst — Best finish of 10th (2023)

Corey LaJoie, Rick Ware Racing Ford, Riley Herbst, 23XI Racing Toyota, Justin Allgaier, JR Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Herbst’s rookie season has been rough, and he is trailing far behind his 23XI Racing teammates. He is one of just two drivers without a top ten this year, but he did score a top ten in his NASCAR Cup debut in the 2023 Daytona 500. Herbst needs to find something like that again, because 2025 has been nothing short of a disaster.

36. Cody Ware — Best finish of 4th (2024)

Cody Ware, Rick Ware Racing Ford

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

When talking about upsets, there would be none bigger than this. Ware sits last in points among full-time drivers. He hasn’t finished higher than 13th in any race this year, and yet, he finished fourth in this race last summer. Daytona truly is the great equalizer — a place where anything can happen. Ware would need a lot of things to go his way in order to challenge for the win, but when asked about the possibility, he recently said: “Why not us?” 

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